Some of us are so caught up in the chase to nail Alex Rodriguez for PED use, that we might forget A-Rod is part of one other chase — he’s inching towards Willie Mays’ 660 career homers. Passing Mays would put A-Rod fourth on the all-time listing behind (so as) Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.
With a suspension looming, it’s a risk that A-Rod may never make it to 660. But he hit another vital dwelling-run threshold on Monday night time, slamming his 650th profession homer. It came off a floating R.A. Dickey knuckleball, which Rodriguez powered into proper discipline in the Yankees 5-2 loss to the Blue Jays. Dickey, it is price mentioning, additionally gave up Ichiro Suzuki’s four,000th profession hit last week.
A-Rod reaching Mays — whether you need him to or not — is necessary to watch from a historical standpoint, but in addition, in A-Rod’s case, from a financial one. He’d get a $6 million bonus for doing so. Can he? Let us take a look at some numbers:
(Getty Images) Up to now this season, A-Rod has hit three homers in 70 at-bats, a rate that is (not-surprisingly) worse than his 15.0 career AB/HR common. Assuming his current AB/HR rate and averaging his at-bats per game this season, A-Rod would want 60 games to hit 10 more homers. The Yankees have 31 common season games left, so he obviously could not catch Mays in 2013 based on those projections.
It’s doubtless, though, that A-Rod begins hitting homers more often as he gets more comfortable at the plate. Projecting 15.0 AB/HR (which is generous for 2013 A-Rod), it will take him 39 video games to hit those 10 homers. So it is fairly unlikely that he matches Mays this season unless he goes on fairly a tear — like in 2007 when homered in every 10.eight at-bats.
That was a profession-best, which would be just about unattainable for 38-12 months-outdated A-Rod to match. We’re talking a few man who hit 18 homers in 122 games last season (that’s 25.7 AB/HR), and that was before a second hip surgery.
If A-Rod’s enchantment-pending suspension knocks him out of action for all or even a large chunk of 2014, there is no telling what participant we’d see afterward. That, coupled along with his diminishing energy numbers, ought to be sufficient for Mays loyalists to be ok with A-Rod not touching 660.
Alex Rodriguez hits 650th career home run — will he catch Willie Mays anytime soon?
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